What is seasonal outlook?
Climate outlooks describe the chances that conditions will be below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal for the outlook period indicated. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts.
How accurate are forecasts a month out?
Longer-range forecasts are less accurate. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time, and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time.
How good are seasonal forecasts?
Extensive seasonal hindcasting, leveraging more than three decades of weather data, has validated that the AER suite of seasonal weather forecasts accurately predicts the temperature direction (higher or lower) 80% of the time, and the magnitude of the predicted temperature anomaly is a 30-50% improvement over using …
What time period does the CPC seasonal drought outlook cover?
Drought Outlooks & Forecasts NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Monthly Drought Outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better over the next 30 days or so.
Will Australia get a cold winter 2021?
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has said winter 2021 is likely to be warmer across much of Australia, including the capitals. There could even been a risk of bushfires in some areas. Expect increased rainfall through the winter months – that’s very good news for those in areas that have suffered from prolonged drying.
Is it going to be a warm summer 2021?
For a significant part of the country, we’re expecting summer temperatures to be hotter than normal once again, including in the Atlantic Corridor and eastern Great Lakes; from the Upper Midwest south to the southern Intermountain region; and into the Pacific Northwest, coastal California, and Alaska.
When do the 90 day outlooks come out?
Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.
What are the chances for the next 3 months?
Under Outlook, select the time period of interest for maps showing chances for above- and below-average temperature and precipitation. NOTE: Shaded areas on these maps show where odds favor above- or below-average conditions. The darker the shading, the greater the chance for the indicated condition.
What is the 30 day outlook for Hawaii?
Hawaii Outlook – The Hawaii 30-day outlook (text only) discusses departures from normal for temperature and precipitation. Monthly U.S. Temperature and Precipitation GIS Data – GIS shape and raster files for the United States monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks.
What can I do with the climate outlook?
Climatological data (1981 – 2010) provides “normal” ranges for temperature and precipitation: climate outlooks describe the chances that upcoming conditions will be in the top or bottom third of historical observations. What can I do with these data?
